WILL CHINA ATTACK TAIWAN?

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Confusedpatriot

Senior Member
Sep 12, 2021
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Don't bet on it. There's no such thing as a sure YES or NO. The best we can do is assess probabilities. Here, the overwhelming probability is No, China will not attack Taiwan.

Why?

First, understand the two major underlying assumptions: China will act rationally and so will America. China has shown itself to be rational in the past. If that changes, then nothing is predictable. The US acts rationally too. But with people like Biden, Harris and Pelosi in charge . . . nothing is predictable. Two good books to understand how nations make irrational decisions:

Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Problem . . . . classic written by Prof Yehezkel Dror

Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis . . . . classic written by Prof Graham Allison. Steve Bannon hates him. :)



Here are ten reasons why China will not attack . . . in no particular order:


1) No guarantee that China can win militarily . . . . and it can't afford to lose. China would have to win in the air, on the sea and on the ground. In the air, it would have to win over Taiwan and over mainland China. In the sea it would have to win in the South China Sea and along trade routes going to China. The US only has to win one of those . . . . China has to win them all.

2) The Belt and Road Initiative requires China to play nice so regional neighbors will play cooperate. Attacking Taiwan will create fear and cause Japan, Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, India, Singapore and Indonesia to ally against China.

3) China has no power projection capability or experience. Power projection means sending soldiers over water or by air. The British and Americans have done this for hundreds of years. Strategically we moved millions of soldiers to Europe twice. We moved half-a-million to Southeast Asia and Saudi Arabia. We have extensive experience in amphibious landings in the Pacific and during World War Two in Europe. The Chinese have none of that.

4) China can't control the air space or sea space. An amphibious attack requires control of the air and se. The Chinese Air Force and Navy can't control the Taiwan Strait . . . . not against the US Air Force and the air forces of various countries. The Chinese navy is no match for the navies of the US and other allies.

main-qimg-52200b9000850a63c6650ec803f8827f


5) China can't risk the damage to itself. Once China attacks Taiwan, it is wide open for attack by the US and other nations. Most Chinese factories are near the east coast of China. There are big steel plants in Manchuria. There are oil fields, refineries and oil storage all along the east coast. China has three large rivers and relies on bridges and dams for commerce. All these things and many more would become open targets for air attack. Even if China did conquer Taiwan, it would lose its industry, bridges, dams and roads. Both Taiwan and China would be destroyed by a war. China would gain nothing.

6) The CCP can't trust its people or the military to remain loyal.

7) China depends on imported oil. About 80% of oil is imported by sea and a few pipelines. The US Navy would blockade routes, destroy pipelines and shipping companies would stop sailing to China. China has around a 90-day supply of oil but the location of the storage tanks are well known and would be quickly destroyed.

8) It may not have to. About a third of Taiwanese voters already favor some form of unification with the mainland. In another generation or two, Taiwan might simply vote to become part of China.

9) It risks losing Manchuria. Japan has always wanted the part of China directly above Korea called "Manchuria." It invaded the region prior to World War Two and formed the puppet state of Manchukuo shown below

huQ3cuaZ5sYcOu_VXtp4FXkJM59tUJs8nq_DCpV6nK0.jpg


Both modern South Korea and Japan would love to get their hands on this rich region. The US could promise them Manchuria if they invaded by land. Note how close Beijing is to the sea. It's less than a two hour drive (100 miles) US Marines, Japan or Korea could threaten it as well as Manchuria, creating a second front.

10) US pre-emptive attack. After the attack on 9-11, President Bush developed the Bush Doctrine which among other things said the US had the right to launch a pre-emptive attack whenever threatened. This was a major foundation for attacking Iraq. Obama continued to use the same doctrine and so did Trump.

I haven't done the research so I can't tell you if pre-emptive attack is still part of our National Military Strategy. It used to be found in the unclassified portion and it could be that Biden has moved it to the classified section

In any event . . . if China tried to attack Taiwan, it would have to mass resources, weapons, shipping, air force and soldiers near its coastal ports. This would be instantly seen and could trigger a US pre-emptive attack. With someone like Trump in charge, that would be a risk that China could not take.


So that's it. That's why I say No, China will not attack Taiwan. Use this as a starting point and form your own opinion.
 

Confusedpatriot

Senior Member
Sep 12, 2021
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Gravitas: Taiwan "surrounded" by Chinese warships & warplanes​



Study my list. Research every point. You'll understand why war, for China is suicidal . . . . . . UNLESS, OF COURSE, SOMEONE LIKE PRESIDENT HARRIS GUARANTEES THAT NEITHER THE US OR ITS ALLIES WILL INTERVENE.

Otherwise forget about it. I don't care how many massive peace-time drills they hold.

Every football team looks great in practice. Every throw is a touchdown. No one touches the quarterback. No stress. No one forgets. Coaches everywhere correcting tiny mistakes.

But it all goes to s*** once the opponent takes the field. Like Big Mike says

everyone-has-a-plan-till-they-get-punched-in-the-mouth.jpg


China's beautiful aircraft carrier will get punched in the face and look like this very quickly

47EE8A7100000578-0-image-a-5_1515492493195.jpg


Even with that idiot Biden in the White Houser, China knows that it's best not to f*** with America.
 

ZenRoman

Senior Member
Feb 18, 2021
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EXCLUSIVE: Audio Leaked of Chinese Military Meeting Discussing the Invasion of Taiwan and Defeat of Regional US Forces​


 

MajFauxPas

Well-known Member
Jan 29, 2021
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Portland, Oregon
Rumor says they plan to attack in July.


 

Confusedpatriot

Senior Member
Sep 12, 2021
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Rumor says they plan to attack in July.


July 2021? :)

Mike Adams is full of s*** and always has been. He generalizes more than a freshman who forgot to bring in his book report.

I stand by my analysis.

However . . . . please note what I said in my post: . . . . understand the two major underlying assumptions: China will act rationally and so will America. China has shown itself to be rational in the past. If that changes, then nothing is predictable. The US acts rationally too. But with people like Biden, Harris and Pelosi in charge . . . nothing is predictable.

The only way China attacks the US and/or Taiwan is by


1) getting the green light from Biden . . . . and . . . .
2) getting the green light from India, Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, etc.


If you think that's POSSIBLE then Mike Adams makes sense.


As for Jeff Nyquist . . . . he doesn't impress me.

1) He makes the argument that war cuts Japanese oil imports . . . without noting that exactly the same thing would happen to China. WTF??? LOL​
2) He says "in Marxh 2020 the US put it's nuclear command war staff" (whatever that means" deep underground. WTF? They've been underground, under the sea, and in the air for DECADES. There is so much redundancy in the command system that I doubt any one person understands all of it.​

They're both full of s***.
 
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ZenRoman

Senior Member
Feb 18, 2021
4,284
809
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Quantum mechanics has proven that thought creates reality.
Did you know that an atom does not exist in one place until it is measured?
During experiments, if a human observer does not measure the atom, it exists in many places at once.
Putting the focus on the atom makes it change the way it behaves and it becomes ‘real’.
This is called the observer effect and it a clear illustration of the power of focus and consciousness to create reality.
What is astounding is that this is a scientific fact.
 

ZenRoman

Senior Member
Feb 18, 2021
4,284
809
113

ZenRoman

Senior Member
Feb 18, 2021
4,284
809
113

Confusedpatriot

Senior Member
Sep 12, 2021
1,634
587
113

facepalm.jpg


Et tu, ZenRoman?

Good god, when are you all going to stop listening to Mike Adams?
 
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